Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:34:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe477…e618 sports 459 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$558 (-7%) realized −$557 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%245W / 212L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$110
14 days−$201
30 days−$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$418
other 44% −$112
politics 4% −$49
culture 2% −$47
world 1% +$41
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +18.7% +7.4% 67% 67% +19.6%
≤30d 34 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 47% -24.7%
≤90d 138 -5.2% -14.2% 51% 51% -20.5%
all 457 -2.7% -12.0% 54% 52% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 52% -16.1%
10% -20.4% 47% -24.1%
15% -28.1% 41% -31.4%
20% -35.1% 28% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$557
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses245 / 212
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)457 / 459
History coverage148d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $101 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $627 −$392 -62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 −$65 -80%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$31 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $121 +$52 +43%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $235 +$93 +40%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Albania vs. Israel end in a draw? Jun 03 $1 $0 -8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 03 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $6 +$10 +172%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 $0 -7%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$12 +60%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will NAC Breda vs. SC Heerenveen end in a draw? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $20 +$21 +103%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $10 +$6 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $51 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $10 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 8d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 9d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 63¢ $19 9d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $20 9d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 93¢ $30 9d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 10d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 63¢ $97 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 10d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 11d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.27 · official $150.27 (match) · 1145 history records