Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe477…2881 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$192 (-26%) realized −$177 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$102
other 24% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.5% -30.8% 45% 45% -30.4%
≤30d 11 -23.5% -30.8% 45% 45% -30.4%
≤90d 11 -23.5% -30.8% 45% 45% -30.4%
all 11 -23.5% -30.8% 45% 45% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 45% -30.4%
10% -37.4% 36% -37.1%
15% -43.5% 18% -43.1%
20% -49.0% 9% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$42 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 62¢ $80 $65 −$15 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $71 +$10 +14%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $54 +$17 +30%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $37 +$17 +46%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $47 −$28 -59%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $126 −$56 -44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $95 +$32 +34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $34 +$20 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 −$22 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $81 31m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $71 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $54 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $37 3h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $19 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 24¢ $20 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $47 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $71 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 50¢ $71 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 88¢ $126 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $127 35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $95 35h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $55 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $34 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $35 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.23 · official $65.23 (match) · 20 history records