Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe478…e989 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$474 (+8%) realized +$479 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate92%37W / 3L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$8
crypto 37% −$10
finance 7% +$491
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 86% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -2.6% -11.9% 94% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 37 -2.4% -11.7% 95% 0% -9.8%
all 40 +1.3% -8.4% 92% 5% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 5% -2.5%
10% -17.1% 2% -11.8%
15% -25.1% 2% -20.3%
20% -32.5% 2% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×33.32 per $1 lost it wins $33.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$479
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses37 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage144d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,460 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 10? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 on May 29? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on May 29? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 22? May 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin Mar 14 $2 $0 +19%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 13? Mar 14 $401 +$491 +122%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? Jan 29 $1,515 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,456 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,460 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $11 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 10d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 17d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $11 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.71 · official $42.71 (match) · 82 history records