Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E4 0xe47b…1b4b sports 688 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,267 (-10%) realized −$9,218 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate59%397W / 276L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$396
7 days+$429
14 days−$861
30 days−$861
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$1,332
sports 40% −$7,740
other 8% −$94
culture 0% −$100
world 0% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +12.9% +2.1% 62% 62% +22.3%
≤30d 16 -33.6% -39.9% 38% 38% -38.7%
≤90d 32 -29.3% -36.0% 47% 31% -69.0%
all 673 -8.4% -17.1% 59% 32% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 32% -18.8%
10% -25.0% 31% -26.6%
15% -32.3% 29% -33.7%
20% -38.9% 29% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$93 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$2,951
Realized−$9,218
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses397 / 276
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions12
Markets (closed)673 / 688
History coverage211d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 673 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $800 $808 +$8 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $400 $483 +$83 (+21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $400 $376 −$24 (-6%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 49¢ 55¢ $200 $225 +$25 (+12%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 47¢ 100¢ $100 $213 +$113 (+113%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 58¢ 57¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $175 −$25 (-12%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $125 −$75 (-38%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 53¢ 61¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 40¢ 42¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 45¢ 44¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $200 $33 −$167 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $412 +$338 +82%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $412 −$400 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $1,884 −$1,882 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $1,696 −$1,696 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $343 −$343 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 Apr 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5 Apr 26 $2 +$2 +113%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5 Apr 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Apr 19 $47 +$53 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 29 $97 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 29 $108 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 29 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 27 $93 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 27 $94 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 26 $61 +$32 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 25 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 24 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 23 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 22 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 22 $700 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 22 $700 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 22 $700 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 22 $600 +$18 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 22 $600 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 22 $600 +$46 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 22 $600 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 22 $600 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 22 $500 +$37 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 22 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 22 $500 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 22 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 22 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 22 $500 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 21 $500 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 21 $500 +$27 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $411 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $102 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 33h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $750 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 53¢ $101 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $102 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $101 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $102 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $51 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 20¢ $51 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will BUY 17¢ $51 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 26¢ $102 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $412 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $206 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $206 9d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $206 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $412 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $412 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $411 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $411 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 58¢ $203 9d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 49¢ $203 9d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 38¢ $204 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $203 9d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $202 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 9d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $304 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,951.04 · official $2,951.04 (match) · 2468 history records