Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe47c…4061 world 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 335d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%29W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$1
world 27% −$4
politics 21% +$2
sports 10% $0
economics 8% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 83 +0.3% -9.3% 31% 2% -9.6%
all 107 +0.3% -9.3% 27% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses29 / 78
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage335d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $33 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $42 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $211 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $102 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $71 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $75 −$4 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $13 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $65 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $70 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $70 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $70 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $34 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $76 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $4 $0 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $74 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $114 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $115 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $82 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $39 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $33 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $33 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $35 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $34 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $37 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $37 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $37 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.19 · official $33.15 (match) · 400 history records