Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe480…ee6c sports 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,273 (+16%) realized +$3,106 · open +$167
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate56%46W / 36L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$140
14 days−$140
30 days−$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$3,253
other 23% −$29
crypto 12% −$131
world 7% +$21
culture 4% +$136
tech 2% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.0% -15.9% 33% 33% -22.4%
≤30d 12 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 33% -32.7%
≤90d 15 -12.6% -20.9% 47% 27% -34.3%
all 82 +8.7% -1.7% 56% 24% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 24% +4.7%
10% -11.1% 20% -5.3%
15% -19.7% 17% -14.4%
20% -27.6% 15% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$73 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$698
Realized+$3,106
Unrealized+$167
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses46 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage244d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Spirit 76¢ 100¢ $530 $698 +$167 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $479 −$147 -31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $234 +$115 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $274 −$108 -40%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $403 −$401 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 02 $57 +$35 +61%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $147 −$147 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $43 +$14 +34%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $73 +$9 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek May 29 $72 +$5 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 29 $71 +$2 +3%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 28 $303 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 28 $290 −$4 -1%
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 20? Apr 09 $97 −$87 -90%
Hurricanes vs. Blackhawks Apr 09 $31 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $90 +$196 +218%
Athletic Club vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Feb 20 $26 $0 -2%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score Feb 20 $29 −$1 -2%
Athletic Club vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5 Feb 20 $38 $0 +0%
Athletic Club vs. Elche CF: Both Teams to Score Feb 20 $26 $0 +0%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5 Feb 20 $40 $0 +1%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5 Feb 20 $29 $0 +2%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $104 −$5 -5%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $22 $0 +0%
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 Feb 18 $78 −$2 -2%
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 Feb 18 $292 −$4 -1%
Olympiakós SFP vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score Feb 18 $135 −$3 -2%
Club Brugge KV vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Feb 18 $204 −$5 -2%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $228 $0 +0%
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 18 $3 $0 +12%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 Feb 18 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $140 −$14 -10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $268 $0 -0%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $270 +$5 +2%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $224 +$5 +2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $245 −$15 -6%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-17? Feb 16 $76 $0 -0%
Cagliari Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 Feb 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $228 −$6 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $309 −$9 -3%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $130 −$2 -1%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-02-13? Feb 12 $174 −$2 -1%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $177 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $86 $0 +0%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Feb 11 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $132 +$4 +3%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $153 +$3 +2%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 06 $144 $0 +0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Feb 06 $102 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 32¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 32¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 32¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 32¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 31¢ $162 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 76¢ $534 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 45¢ $479 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 33¢ $84 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 32¢ $82 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 53¢ $274 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 67¢ $234 23h
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ $403 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $9 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $3 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $24 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $20 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 71¢ $70 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 74¢ $43 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 71¢ $77 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $36 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Aryna Sabalenka 89¢ $1 20d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ $6 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ $21 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ $9 21d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? SELL No 74¢ $303 22d
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? SELL No 58¢ $286 22d
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY No 58¢ $290 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 93¢ $45 22d
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek BUY Iga Swiatek 93¢ $27 22d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? BUY No 74¢ $303 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $697.65 · official $697.65 (match) · 466 history records