Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe485…5095 crypto 103 markets active 6h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-4%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%59W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$103
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$67
sports 1% +$1
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -19.1% -26.8% 43% 26% -30.8%
≤30d 61 -19.1% -26.8% 43% 26% -30.8%
≤90d 61 -19.1% -26.8% 43% 26% -30.8%
all 103 -9.3% -17.9% 57% 38% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 38% -13.7%
10% -25.8% 20% -22.0%
15% -32.9% 12% -29.5%
20% -39.5% 6% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses59 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage141d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 6PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 9AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$15 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 8AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 1PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 11AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 12PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$3 -12%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -49%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 13h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 13h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 17h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $3 17h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 394 history records