Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe487…e94e world 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$9
other 18% −$2
finance 4% $0
sports 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 22 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 27 -0.9% -10.3% 37% 4% -9.2%
all 28 -4.4% -13.5% 36% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage488d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $53 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $27 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 11 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $53 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $84 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $125 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $48 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 27 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $87 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $57 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $45 +$5 +11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $84 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $41 +$2 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 13 $289 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $264 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $261 +$4 +1%
Austin Peay vs. Queens Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $50 7m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $50 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $50 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $44 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $44 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $3 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $16 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $16 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $46 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $49 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $45 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 113 history records