Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E4 0xe487…7fdb crypto 1110 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$190 (-1%) realized −$170 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate66%725W / 379L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day60.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$11
14 days−$76
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$134
other 26% −$36
world 7% +$62
politics 5% −$56
weather 5% +$30
sports 4% −$8
economics 1% +$8
tech 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 -10.6% -19.1% 55% 48% -9.4%
≤30d 1012 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 57% -9.9%
≤90d 1104 -1.0% -10.4% 66% 53% -10.3%
all 1104 -1.0% -10.4% 66% 53% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 53% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 35% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 23% -26.7%
20% -34.0% 16% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$170
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses725 / 379
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1104 / 1110
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day60.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? No 11¢ 8¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? No 15¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? No 12¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? No 17¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 28 $183 +$4 +2%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 28 $230 −$7 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 28 $1,047 −$25 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 28 $6 −$3 -44%
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 28 $196 −$26 -13%
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary Jun 28 $165 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 27 $144 −$4 -3%
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? Jun 27 $26 −$21 -81%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by Septembe Jun 27 $58 −$8 -13%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 27 $102 −$6 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $17 −$9 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $51 +$7 +13%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 27 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 27 $74 −$3 -4%
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Jun 27 $86 $0 -0%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30? Jun 27 $32 +$9 +29%
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27? Jun 27 $98 +$102 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $57 −$7 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $106 +$2 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 26 $195 +$5 +2%
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? Jun 26 $99 +$1 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 26 $158 +$1 +0%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 25 $157 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $56 −$19 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $123 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 24 $256 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL Yes 81¢ $16 7m
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 42¢ $20 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 2¢ $0 17m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 18m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 4¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 12¢ $6 34m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 12¢ $0 35m
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 42¢ $1 36m
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 51¢ $26 37m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 87¢ $44 38m
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 54¢ $27 38m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 39m
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 53¢ $26 40m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 87¢ $36 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 10¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 12¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 16¢ $9 1h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 18¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL Yes 84¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 18¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.65 · official $16.57 (match) · 3500 history records