Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E4 0xe488…f2c0 sports 539 markets active 1h ago coverage 593d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,696 (-3%) realized −$3,705 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%223W / 305L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$318est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 593d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$1,858
sports 31% −$3,651
crypto 3% +$141
politics 3% +$328
finance 2% −$177
world 2% +$147
culture 1% −$340
tech 0% −$43
economics 0% −$110
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -8.1% -16.9% 49% 43% -11.9%
≤30d 103 -21.0% -28.5% 41% 37% -12.9%
≤90d 316 -23.4% -30.7% 40% 38% -15.9%
all 528 -17.6% -25.5% 42% 41% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 41% -13.5%
10% -32.6% 37% -21.8%
15% -39.1% 31% -29.3%
20% -45.1% 23% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$105 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$2,375
Realized−$3,705
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses223 / 305
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$318
Open positions11
Markets (closed)528 / 539
History coverage593d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1,000 $973 −$27 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $500 $518 +$18 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $500 $512 +$12 (+2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 30¢ 30¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+39%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-58%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 220 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,717 +$232 +14%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $195 +$171 +88%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 21 $31 +$2 +5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,127 +$5 +0%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $909 −$462 -51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $172 +$98 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 20 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $254 +$205 +80%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $304 +$111 +37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $405 +$223 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $82 −$80 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $305 +$100 +33%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $406 +$187 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $262 +$49 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$66 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,019 +$851 +42%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,161 +$553 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,216 −$516 -42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,019 −$978 -48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$83 -41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$81 +199%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$229 +75%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 −$144 -71%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$92 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $406 +$203 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$20 -19%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $143 −$92 -65%
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,517 +$202 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $810 −$377 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $102 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,092 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $858 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 31¢ $41 21h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL Yes 5¢ $33 21h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 19¢ $20 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,034 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 16¢ $131 24h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 16¢ $103 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $448 26h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $271 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $172 32h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $31 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 36¢ $93 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $459 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $909 42h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 42h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 43h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 46h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $415 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $628 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,374.66 · official $2,374.66 (match) · 1058 history records