Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E4 0xe48d…a64d crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,135 (+14%) realized +$3,410 · open −$275
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$652per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$80
other 34% +$2,873
sports 11% +$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 44% +3.6%
≤30d 34 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 44% +3.6%
≤90d 34 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 44% +3.6%
all 34 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 44% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 44% +3.6%
10% -18.0% 44% -6.3%
15% ← realistic here -25.9% 41% -15.3%
20% -33.2% 35% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$800) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$811 vs −$542 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$3,410
Unrealized−$275
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage5d
Avg bet$652
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $300 $25 −$275 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $732 −$700 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $532 +$567 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $722 +$560 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $939 +$1,008 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $729 −$700 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $612 +$205 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $1,227 +$545 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $1,233 −$1,233 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $1,943 +$1,366 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $517 −$517 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $728 −$700 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $633 +$1,140 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $361 −$339 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $421 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $616 −$616 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $305 +$426 +140%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $304 +$241 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $609 −$600 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $708 +$420 +59%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $811 −$800 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $809 −$800 -99%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $305 −$300 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 24 $406 +$443 +109%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $611 +$926 +152%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $612 −$600 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $810 +$522 +64%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $809 −$800 -99%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $1,025 +$4,531 +442%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,413 −$48 -3%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $205 −$201 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $107 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $106 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $23 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $83 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $104 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,099 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $13 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $111 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $919 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.81 · official $323.70 · 174 history records