Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe495…b304 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$1 (+2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -18.9% -26.6% 53% 53% -23.6%
≤30d 15 -18.9% -26.6% 53% 53% -23.6%
≤90d 15 -18.9% -26.6% 53% 53% -23.6%
all 15 -18.9% -26.6% 53% 53% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 53% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 53% -30.9%
15% -40.1% 47% -37.6%
20% -45.9% 27% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records