Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe497…2b89 sports 1466 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,419 (-5%) realized −$1,529 · open +$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%576W / 888L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$221est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days+$166
14 days+$149
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1,485
sports 49% −$84
world 0% −$31
politics 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 44% -3.6%
≤30d 215 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 40% -9.1%
≤90d 1436 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 34% -14.9%
all 1464 -8.1% -16.8% 39% 35% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 35% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 31% -22.8%
15% -32.1% 27% -30.3%
20% -38.7% 23% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized−$1,529
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses576 / 888
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$221
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1464 / 1466
History coverage93d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Under 71¢ 99¢ $300 $420 +$120 (+40%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $321 −$6 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $202 +$50 +25%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $25 −$17 -68%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$9 +84%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$17 -17%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $52 +$19 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$8 +32%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $201 +$24 +12%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$9 +89%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $201 +$37 +18%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $60 +$10 +16%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $201 +$37 +18%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +94%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $201 +$34 +17%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $6 +$2 +44%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$8 +78%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $73 +$6 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$3 -18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$11 +53%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$4 +41%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $100 +$16 +16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 +$18 +18%
England leading at halftime? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $99 +$8 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 −$8 -90%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$7 -70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 $0 -4%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -10%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$8 +268%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 57¢ $10 12m
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 94¢ $16 19m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $303 47m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 87¢ $315 48m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $321 52m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $73 55m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $10 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 58¢ $10 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $18 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 92¢ $251 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $202 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $17 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 90¢ $30 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 5h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 59¢ $20 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 24h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 24h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 23¢ $8 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $19 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 47¢ $84 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 25h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 69¢ $25 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $71 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $52 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $420.02 · official $416.43 (match) · 3170 history records