Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe497…84aa sports 832 markets active 1h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$629 (-2%) realized −$608 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%414W / 408L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$224
14 days−$318
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$321
sports 33% −$186
culture 11% −$308
tech 6% +$178
politics 5% −$68
crypto 5% −$66
world 3% −$14
finance 1% −$12
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -0.9% -10.4% 51% 31% -12.9%
≤30d 142 +26.2% +14.2% 56% 44% -10.7%
≤90d 374 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 41% -14.1%
all 822 -3.8% -12.9% 50% 39% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 39% -12.2%
10% -21.3% 31% -20.6%
15% -28.9% 25% -28.3%
20% -35.9% 19% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$608
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses414 / 408
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions10
Markets (closed)822 / 832
History coverage698d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 822 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cambria FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 94¢ 88¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 47¢ 32¢ $48 $33 −$15 (-31%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-10%)
Betmoar FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 80¢ 92¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+15%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Yes $7 $3 −$4 (-58%)
Will T1 make a roster change before July? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gen.G make a roster change before July? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $500 +$44 +9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 25 $388 −$41 -11%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 25 $250 −$69 -28%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 25 $292 −$102 -35%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 25 $182 −$11 -6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 25 $1,043 −$8 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $224 $0 -0%
Over $10M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 25 $154 −$13 -8%
Will Ninjas in Pyjamas make a roster change before July? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 24 $1,055 +$10 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 24 $308 −$5 -2%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Jun 24 $406 −$5 -1%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 24 $333 +$1 +0%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 24 $10 −$4 -35%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 24 $114 −$16 -14%
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 24 $172 −$14 -8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $268 −$12 -4%
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 23 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 23 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 23 $4 +$1 +35%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026? Jun 23 $1 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 22 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +9%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$7 +68%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$10 +68%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $35 +$8 +23%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$4 +38%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$22 +71%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $23 −$23 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 +$10 +34%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 18 $33 +$11 +33%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $20 +$23 +114%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $30 −$15 -51%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $120 +$6 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY SELL FLY 21¢ $2 55m
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY SELL DK 67¢ $533 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY SELL DK 79¢ $7 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY SELL DK 79¢ $2 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 31¢ $97 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY FLY 22¢ $2 1h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 80¢ $61 2h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 80¢ $213 2h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY BUY DK 80¢ $127 2h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 3 SELL Yes $12 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 51¢ $149 18h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $123 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL Yes 35¢ $190 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL Yes 86¢ $171 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 55¢ $56 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $321 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 49¢ $23 19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 93¢ $19 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $0 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 64¢ $37 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $17 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.39 · official $139.37 (match) · 2839 history records