Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe497…188a crypto 79 markets active 5d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$341 (-19%) realized −$341 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$235
14 days−$235
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$167
sports 28% −$218
other 1% −$17
politics 0% −$6
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -51.8% -56.4% 21% 21% -42.4%
≤30d 45 -42.0% -47.5% 24% 24% -43.1%
≤90d 79 -37.9% -43.8% 35% 34% -33.2%
all 79 -37.9% -43.8% 35% 34% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.8% 34% -33.2%
10% -49.2% 29% -39.6%
15% -54.1% 20% -45.4%
20% -58.6% 16% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$341
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 51
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage72d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $18 −$18 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $177 −$75 -42%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $25 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$33 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$39 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$20 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $23 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $82 +$49 +59%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $114 −$112 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 24 $54 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 24 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 24 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $5 +$14 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 24 $3 +$6 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 Winner May 18 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 03 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 03 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 03 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 03 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 03 $30 −$14 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $76 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 42¢ $63 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 66¢ $101 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $48 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $53 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $15 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $93 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records