Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe499…f953 sports 223 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$292 (+10%) realized +$289 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%114W / 76L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$169
14 days+$271
30 days+$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$390
other 28% −$36
crypto 1% −$3
world 0% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +20.6% +9.1% 65% 63% +6.2%
≤30d 145 +14.8% +3.9% 62% 60% +5.7%
≤90d 190 +10.5% +0.0% 60% 58% +3.4%
all 190 +10.5% +0.0% 60% 58% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 58% +3.4%
10% -9.6% 58% -6.5%
15% -18.3% 56% -15.5%
20% -26.3% 47% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$259
Realized+$289
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses114 / 76
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions17
Markets (closed)190 / 223
History coverage45d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $70 $79 +$9 (+13%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $15 $10 −$4 (-30%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 46¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $8 +$2 +31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 −$80 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $46 +$40 +88%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $18 −$18 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +49%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$9 +91%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 −$22 -74%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$15 +61%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +103%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +91%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$25 +61%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$8 -81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $24 +$14 +58%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$6 +63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$25 -83%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 +$15 +238%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$14 +137%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 +$8 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0 BUY 23¢ $19 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 84¢ $12 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1 BUY 3¢ $3 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY 5¢ $8 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY 35¢ $10 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $8 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 25¢ $41 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 33h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $11 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners AND Raphinha: 1+ goals AND Br BUY 17¢ $3 41h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 41h
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 41h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 21¢ $5 41h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score AND Will Scotland win on 202 BUY 10¢ $5 42h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $18 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 52¢ $46 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 2d
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3 BUY 26¢ $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Mexico win on BUY 37¢ $7 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 66¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.48 · official $329.48 · 429 history records