Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe49c…35fa other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$138 (-1%) realized −$137 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate53%29W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$26
sports 38% −$17
other 5% +$43
world 3% −$115
crypto 1% −$4
tech 1% −$20
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +17.5% +6.3% 100% 33% -0.5%
≤30d 3 +17.5% +6.3% 100% 33% -0.5%
≤90d 21 -8.7% -17.4% 71% 24% -31.5%
all 55 -3.7% -12.9% 53% 15% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 15% -10.8%
10% -21.2% 7% -19.4%
15% -28.8% 5% -27.2%
20% -35.8% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses29 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage230d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 86¢ 86¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? Jun 21 $16 +$8 +50%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 +1%
Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April? May 15 $23 +$3 +13%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $23 −$7 -29%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 27 $38 −$12 -31%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 15 $16 −$4 -28%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $17 +$2 +12%
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? Apr 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 15 $16 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 03 $104 −$104 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Apr 03 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $17 +$1 +3%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31? Apr 03 $26 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 29 $19 −$3 -17%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Mar 24 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Mar 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 07 $5 +$2 +52%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? Mar 07 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $3,207 −$14 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $1,525 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $21 +$1 +5%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Feb 28 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026? Feb 28 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Win Feb 22 $6 +$3 +44%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Feb 19 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Feb 06 $75 +$26 +35%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $23 −$5 -20%
Will Solana reach $150 in January? Jan 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $74 −$5 -7%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $56 −$6 -10%
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025? Dec 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 29 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 BUY No 92¢ $8 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 86¢ $123 1h
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 36d
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 36d
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 99¢ $35 36d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 55d
Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April? BUY Yes 88¢ $23 55d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 55d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? SELL Yes 59¢ $27 55d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY Yes 85¢ $38 66d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $23 66d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 59¢ $12 66d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 66d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 98¢ $104 78d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 78d
Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? BUY No 98¢ $14 78d
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $26 83d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $23 83d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $15 83d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 79¢ $16 83d
Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $17 88d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY No 87¢ $15 88d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $15 88d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? SELL No 100¢ $19 88d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? SELL No 100¢ $21 88d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 99¢ $19 103d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 99¢ $21 104d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 104d
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 104d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,538 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.25 · official $129.25 (match) · 138 history records