Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe49d…58ee sports 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$587 (-13%) realized −$589 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%115W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$258
14 days+$267
30 days−$464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$398
sports 31% −$101
other 4% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +80.1% +63.0% 78% 72% +81.5%
≤30d 207 +12.6% +1.9% 54% 50% -20.3%
≤90d 212 +13.0% +2.2% 54% 50% -19.6%
all 212 +13.0% +2.2% 54% 50% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 50% -19.6%
10% -7.5% 45% -27.3%
15% -16.5% 41% -34.3%
20% -24.7% 34% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$589
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses115 / 97
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions12
Markets (closed)212 / 255
History coverage33d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 64¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-15%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 40¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Over 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Over 19¢ 22¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Over 4¢ 4¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Over 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25 Jun 26 $5 +$2 +40%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$24 +123%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026- Jun 25 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$12 +241%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-0 Jun 25 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on Jun 24 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-2 Jun 24 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$7 +142%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$5 +226%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 +$41 +183%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 +$53 +342%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$13 +86%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 +$9 +176%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -91%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 +$2 +158%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 +$2 +180%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1 +$1 +93%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1 +$2 +180%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 +$7 +325%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +216%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 +$4 +365%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY 6¢ $10 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $10 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $20 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 51¢ $10 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 16¢ $10 7h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 44¢ $20 7h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY 64¢ $30 7h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY 5¢ $5 7h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 18¢ $5 7h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06- BUY 11¢ $5 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 11¢ $10 25h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $2 25h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 25h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 25h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 25h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 35¢ $10 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY 13¢ $5 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 16¢ $5 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL 74¢ $17 27h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-0 SELL 77¢ $9 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on SELL 85¢ $29 30h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026- BUY 64¢ $30 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Morocco w BUY 21¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 62¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on BUY 59¢ $20 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Canada wi BUY 8¢ $5 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-0 BUY 41¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.92 · official $152.47 · 586 history records