Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:33:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe49e…562b world 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%23W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$4
other 24% −$2
politics 15% +$1
sports 13% −$17
crypto 4% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.4% 37% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 71 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 0% -9.5%
all 78 -1.8% -11.2% 29% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses23 / 55
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage531d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $45 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $80 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $86 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $133 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $46 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $79 +$3 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $55 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $79 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $2 $0 -2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $62 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $84 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $79 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $35 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $36 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $3 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $38 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $40 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $14 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $27 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $45 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $40 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $28 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $16 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.83 · official $1.00 (match) · 305 history records