Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe49f…79fb crypto 626 markets active 19h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,342 (-77%) realized −$8,342 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate33%205W / 421L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day70.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$843
sports 2% −$15
politics 0% −$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -17.8% -25.6% 17% 17% -17.6%
≤30d 268 -12.6% -20.9% 30% 18% -20.3%
≤90d 626 -8.8% -17.4% 33% 12% -16.7%
all 626 -8.8% -17.4% 33% 12% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 12% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 6% -24.7%
15% -32.6% 4% -31.9%
20% -39.2% 3% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses205 / 421
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)626 / 626
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day70.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 626 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the game go to extra innings?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yan Jun 17 $3 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$5 +109%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $65 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $71 −$3 -5%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $17 −$4 -27%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $34 −$5 -15%
Will Trump say "Star" this week? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -64%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$2 -30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$3 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$4 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$3 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$1 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$2 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$3 -26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $10 −$2 -22%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$1 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$5 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$3 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$3 -31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +102%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$4 -41%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$3 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 05 $10 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 25¢ $2 19h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 47¢ $3 25h
Will the game go to extra innings?: Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yan BUY No 85¢ $3 28h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 91¢ $2 32h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 90¢ $2 32h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 47¢ $5 47h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 51¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records