Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4a0…ec4d world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 30L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$1
other 23% +$1
politics 6% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 28% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 28% 0% -9.3%
all 42 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage468d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 51¢ 51¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 30¢ 39¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $52 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $83 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $47 +$4 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $89 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $5 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $10 $0 -1%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -73%
$jellyjelly FDV over $50m on Friday? Mar 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will Lily Phillips break Bonnie Blue's 24hr sex record before April? Mar 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Epstein files released this week? Mar 11 $17 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $29 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $17 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $27 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $11 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $17 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $36 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $43 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $51 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $52 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $54 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $53 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $54 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.29 · official $45.90 (match) · 130 history records