Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:33:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E4 0xe4a1…e26a sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,529 (+36%) realized +$1,565 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$967
other 32% +$364
world 12% −$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +20.5% +9.0% 46% 46% +21.0%
≤30d 13 +20.5% +9.0% 46% 46% +21.0%
≤90d 13 +20.5% +9.0% 46% 46% +21.0%
all 13 +20.5% +9.0% 46% 46% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 46% +21.0%
10% -1.4% 46% +9.4%
15% -10.9% 46% -1.1%
20% -19.7% 38% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$385 vs −$157 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$614
Realized+$1,565
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage7d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $400 $352 −$48 (-12%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $199 $214 +$15 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage TYLOO 43¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $407 −$400 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $306 +$128 +42%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 25 $407 +$482 +119%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $408 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $240 −$236 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 22 $500 −$154 -31%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $307 +$800 +261%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $203 +$272 +134%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $305 +$347 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $219 +$281 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 20¢ $203 46m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $407 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $435 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $306 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $406 19h
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY TYLOO 43¢ $1 44h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 45¢ $407 44h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $0 45h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $407 45h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Passion Academy 49¢ $240 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $408 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 3¢ $346 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $500 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $476 5d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY GenOne 32¢ $6 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $203 5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $307 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $651 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $305 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 33¢ $102 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $499 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $219 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $613.80 · official $613.80 (match) · 32 history records