Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe4a4…cdb9 sports 343 markets active 5d ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (432 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$281 (+2%) realized +$281 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%212W / 131L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day432.5pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$300
14 days+$626
30 days+$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$592
other 13% +$46
crypto 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (432 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +21.1% +9.6% 68% 49% -2.0%
≤30d 343 +12.1% +1.4% 62% 45% -5.2%
≤90d 343 +12.1% +1.4% 62% 45% -5.2%
all 343 +12.1% +1.4% 62% 45% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover432.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 45% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -8.3% 29% -14.3%
15% -17.1% 20% -22.6%
20% -25.3% 13% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses212 / 131
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions0
Markets (closed)343 / 343
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day432.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 343 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +90%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 +$4 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$15 +130%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$22 +396%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $16 +$2 +13%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $16 +$2 +10%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $7 −$1 -18%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $142 +$27 +19%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $12 +$6 +54%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $24 +$3 +11%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $18 +$18 +101%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $25 +$10 +38%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $93 +$7 +7%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $4 +$5 +133%
Cattolica (Doubles): Grevelius/Heinonen vs Jong/Hermans Jun 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Jun 12 $18 +$1 +4%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $28 +$4 +13%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $40 +$3 +8%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $56 +$37 +67%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $33 +$12 +36%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $271 +$11 +4%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $38 +$12 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $12 −$6 -48%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $32 +$7 +22%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $33 −$4 -12%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $53 −$5 -9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$2 -4%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $23 −$5 -22%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $24 +$3 +10%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $175 −$13 -7%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $246 −$13 -6%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $126 −$29 -23%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $87 +$12 +13%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $136 −$2 -2%
ITF Zagreb: Iva Primorac vs Dalila Jakupovic Jun 12 $7 +$1 +7%
ITF Guimaraes: Francisca Jorge vs Aliona Falei Jun 12 $3 +$3 +86%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $47 +$14 +29%
ITF Guimaraes: Ariana Arseneault vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 12 $3 +$3 +73%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $75 +$1 +1%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $56 +$3 +5%
Libema Open (Doubles): Pavlasek/Rikl vs Bergs/Rinderknech Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $8 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren SELL Toby Samuel 100¢ $12 5d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 21¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 79¢ $7 5d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Daniel Galan 65¢ $6 5d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Daniel Galan 64¢ $6 5d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 40¢ $4 5d
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 84¢ $8 5d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 32¢ $3 5d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 81¢ $7 5d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 58¢ $5 5d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 48¢ $4 5d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 42¢ $4 5d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 48¢ $4 5d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 42¢ $4 5d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 50¢ $5 5d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 77¢ $3 5d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 77¢ $4 5d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 32¢ $3 5d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 32¢ $3 5d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 69¢ $4 5d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 69¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 54¢ $5 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 55¢ $4 5d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 60¢ $4 5d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 31¢ $3 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 54¢ $5 5d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 64¢ $6 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 61¢ $5 5d
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren BUY Toby Samuel 97¢ $5 5d
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 15¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records