Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4a7…7805 politics 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$2
other 30% $0
sports 26% −$1
world 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$1,103
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage85d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,073 $1,072 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 26 $1,139 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $1,104 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? Apr 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $81 $0 +0%
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 02 $190 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,024 0m
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $16 7m
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $0 17m
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $15 23m
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $135 34m
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $12 54m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $781 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $321 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,104 1h
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $144 75d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? SELL No 100¢ $49 75d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $16 75d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $144 75d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $14 75d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $34 75d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $30 75d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $14 75d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $164 80d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $16 80d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $138 80d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 95¢ $81 80d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $13 80d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 80d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 94¢ $56 80d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 94¢ $26 80d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 76¢ $29 80d
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $190 84d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $11 84d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,103.14 · official $1,103.14 (match) · 37 history records