Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe4ab…c2a6 crypto 369 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$633 (+1%) realized +$633 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate74%273W / 96L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$139
14 days−$139
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$101
other 1% +$339
world 0% +$21
tech 0% −$10
politics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -12.8% -21.1% 62% 53% -30.5%
≤30d 34 -12.8% -21.1% 62% 53% -30.5%
≤90d 118 -3.5% -12.7% 70% 53% -13.1%
all 369 -2.8% -12.0% 74% 40% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 40% -8.7%
10% -20.4% 26% -17.5%
15% -28.1% 19% -25.4%
20% -35.2% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$41 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$633
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses273 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)369 / 369
History coverage270d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 369 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$2 -77%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$5 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$15 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$10 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -71%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +58%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 07 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 07 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 07 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 30 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 30 $62 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 30 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 30 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 30 $70 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 30 $81 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 30 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 30 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 30 $74 −$72 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 29 $31 +$24 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $10 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $81 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1086 history records