Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4ab…a8a4 sports 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,733 (-18%) realized −$1,728 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%32W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$243est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$560
7 days+$450
14 days+$569
30 days−$1,830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,558
other 13% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +90.5% +72.3% 56% 47% -0.3%
≤30d 74 +46.9% +32.9% 42% 38% -20.6%
≤90d 79 +40.0% +26.7% 41% 37% -20.4%
all 79 +40.0% +26.7% 41% 37% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.7% 37% -20.4%
10% +14.6% 33% -28.0%
15% +3.5% 29% -35.0%
20% -6.6% 29% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +76% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$75 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$1,728
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses32 / 47
Est. fees paid−$243
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage39d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $8 +$59 +766%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$109 +54%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$9 -46%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $202 −$1 -1%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $157 +$175 +112%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $113 +$247 +219%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $77 −$39 -50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$127 -62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $403 −$400 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$13 +122%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 +$23 +8%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$28 +69%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $72 +$220 +307%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$215 +1046%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$21 +206%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$29 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,464 −$129 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $244 +$9 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $127 −$38 -30%
Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 04 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 +$2 +197%
Birmingham: Alex Bolt vs Arthur Fery Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Andorra vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Makarska: Simona Waltert vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $153 +$150 +98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $640 −$402 -63%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $41 +$36 +89%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,150 −$1,098 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $759 −$747 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5m
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 56m
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 74¢ $37 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 5h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $155 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $11 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $20 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 61¢ $201 22h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $243 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 88¢ $89 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $4 30h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $202 30h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $153 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $360 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.88 · official $15.37 (match) · 406 history records