Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E4 0xe4ad…946f weather 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+2%) realized +$33 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate67%97W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$40
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$145
other 28% +$46
crypto 12% −$55
sports 8% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.1% -7.6% 58% 53% -6.0%
≤30d 145 -8.4% -17.1% 67% 49% -8.8%
≤90d 145 -8.4% -17.1% 67% 49% -8.8%
all 145 -8.4% -17.1% 67% 49% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 49% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 22% -17.5%
15% -32.3% 11% -25.5%
20% -38.9% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses97 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)145 / 149
History coverage12d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $55 $151 +$96 (+174%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 +$7 +325%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $63 +$18 +29%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $44 +$25 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $47 +$113 +238%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $91 −$90 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $79 +$11 +14%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $89 +$39 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 +$36 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $109 +$26 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $74 +$35 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $123 −$121 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $183 +$37 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $116 +$11 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $44 +$9 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $85 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$3 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $46 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 44¢ $57 14h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $63 18h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $44 21h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $47 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $91 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $90 24h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 86¢ $79 29h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce SELL Fenerbahce 100¢ $128 43h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 69¢ $89 47h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $146 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $110 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $109 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $74 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.95 · official $209.95 (match) · 448 history records