Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe4b1…44ac crypto 889 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$884 (+0%) realized +$884 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate96%856W / 33L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$77
14 days−$46
30 days−$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$734
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 8% -6.6%
≤30d 96 -1.9% -11.2% 95% 3% -11.2%
≤90d 176 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 2% -9.5%
all 889 +0.4% -9.2% 96% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 7% -9.1%
10% -17.9% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$200 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$884
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses856 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)889 / 889
History coverage119d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 889 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$4 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $200 +$4 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $200 +$4 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $201 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $201 +$10 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $201 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 09 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $201 +$12 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $200 +$4 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $200 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $200 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $200 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $200 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $200 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $202 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1747 history records