Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:05:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4b3…96b1 crypto 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$621 (-6%) realized −$621 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%95W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$330
7 days+$109
14 days+$33
30 days−$649
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$986
other 1% −$105
weather 0% −$33
world 0% −$2
tech 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -26.0% -33.1% 29% 29% -4.8%
≤30d 84 -18.4% -26.2% 36% 31% -17.5%
≤90d 231 -13.2% -21.5% 41% 36% -18.9%
all 231 -13.2% -21.5% 41% 36% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 36% -18.9%
10% -29.0% 32% -26.7%
15% -35.9% 29% -33.8%
20% -42.2% 26% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$33 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$621
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses95 / 136
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 231
History coverage70d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $317 −$304 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET Jun 27 $28 −$10 -37%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $70 −$29 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $61 +$111 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $23 +$27 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $17 +$16 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$9 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET Jun 25 $175 −$127 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$24 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $213 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $69 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $744 +$652 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $119 +$86 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $83 −$60 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$82 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $88 −$80 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $82 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$63 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $142 +$266 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$10 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $93 −$48 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$16 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $311 −$180 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $143 +$157 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $107 +$47 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $46 +$62 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 7¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 8¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 9¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 38¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 40¢ $83 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 38¢ $65 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 40¢ $42 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 39¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 39¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 39¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 39¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 35¢ $0 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $17 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1079 history records