Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe4b3…c131
sports · 154 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$2,026 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,991 · open −$35
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$79
Realized−$1,991
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses51 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions7
Markets (closed)147 / 154
History coverage86d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 7 History 147 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 87¢ 89¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $31 $14 −$17 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
AC Sparta Praha vs. FK Jablonec: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
FK Akron Tolyatti vs. FK Krasnodar: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Over 70¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $56 +$32 +58%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 May 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $148 −$63 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $360 −$360 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 05 $270 +$90 +33%
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $135 +$135 +100%
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? May 04 $156 −$24 -15%
AC Sparta Praha vs. FK Jablonec: O/U 2.5 May 03 $120 −$120 -100%
FK Akron Tolyatti vs. FK Krasnodar: O/U 1.5 May 03 $180 −$180 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $177 −$18 -10%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $3 +$3 +100%
FC København vs. Vejle BK: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 27 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 25? Apr 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 27 $399 −$399 -100%
Folarin Balogun: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April? Apr 25 $17 −$13 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 24? Apr 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $84 −$22 -26%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $150 −$150 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $400 +$100 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Apr 24 $29 +$28 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 24? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 24? Apr 24 $7 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Apr 24 $11 +$6 +53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 23? Apr 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 23? Apr 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 23? Apr 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 23? Apr 24 $56 −$23 -40%
Go Ahead Eagles vs. AZ: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Go Ahead Eagles vs. AZ: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $34 −$34 -100%
FK Spartak Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $198 +$242 +122%
FK Spartak Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $288 +$192 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 23? Apr 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 23? Apr 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 23? Apr 23 $202 −$44 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 23? Apr 23 $135 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 23? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 23? Apr 23 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 23? Apr 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 22? Apr 23 $119 −$32 -27%
FK Lokomotiv Moskva vs. FK Zenit: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $357 −$357 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% −$6,086
world 29% +$1,952
other 7% +$1,217
politics 6% +$1,525
weather 5% −$139
culture 3% −$286
tech 1% −$17
economics 1% −$45
finance 1% −$138
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $13 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $56 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $47 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 25h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $22 25h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 25h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 25h
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $41 19d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $13 19d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 19d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 19d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $6 19d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $0 19d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $14 19d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $4 19d
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $4 19d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 15¢ $86 20d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 26¢ $148 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 20d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $153 36d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $48 36d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $9 36d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $8 36d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $8 36d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $8 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 100% +42.7%
≤30d 4 -46.2% -51.3% 25% 25% -46.5%
≤90d 147 -19.9% -27.6% 35% 33% -15.1%
all 147 -19.9% -27.6% 35% 33% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 33% -15.1%
10% -34.5% 29% -23.2%
15% -40.8% 25% -30.6%
20% -46.6% 23% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.96 · official $78.96 (match) · 1601 history records