Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe4b4…874d
other · 69 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$116 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$119 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$277
Realized+$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses6 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)60 / 69
History coverage4d
Avg bet$672
Trades / day950.9
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 9 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$119
14 days+$119
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $597 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $2,145 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3,149 −$2 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $918 +$29 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $467 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $230 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $565 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $620 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1,227 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,132 +$31 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $452 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $546 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1,798 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $944 +$30 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 12 $812 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $372 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1,367 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $3,861 −$2 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $90 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,303 +$31 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 12 $1,420 +$12 +1%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $472 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $176 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $306 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $150 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $994 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $89 −$1 -1%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $850 $0 -0%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $440 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $301 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $2,988 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $73 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $2,999 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$86
world 14% −$1
crypto 13% +$10
tech 13% −$2
politics 12% +$26
economics 7% −$1
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 3m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 3m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $30 5m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $34 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $34 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $45 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $12 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $34 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $7 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $7 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $46 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $46 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $32 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $32 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $80 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $60 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $69 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $20 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $20 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $20 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $42 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $16 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $88 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $8 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $24 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $56 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $71 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $37 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $34 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +0.2% -9.4% 10% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 60 +0.2% -9.4% 10% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 60 +0.2% -9.4% 10% 0% -9.2%
all 60 +0.2% -9.4% 10% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover950.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.51 · official $276.51 (match) · 3500 history records