Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E4 0xe4b5…6d0b other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+22%) realized +$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.5% -19.0% 57% 57% +1.6%
≤30d 7 -10.5% -19.0% 57% 57% +1.6%
≤90d 7 -10.5% -19.0% 57% 57% +1.6%
all 7 -10.5% -19.0% 57% 57% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 57% +1.6%
10% -26.8% 57% -8.1%
15% -33.8% 57% -17.0%
20% -40.3% 43% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.32 · official $29.32 (match) · 14 history records