Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4b6…a582 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$322 (-49%) realized −$326 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$223
sports 30% −$99
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -33.2% -39.5% 38% 33% -56.3%
≤30d 21 -33.2% -39.5% 38% 33% -56.3%
≤90d 21 -33.2% -39.5% 38% 33% -56.3%
all 21 -33.2% -39.5% 38% 33% -56.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 33% -56.3%
10% -45.3% 24% -60.5%
15% -50.6% 19% -64.3%
20% -55.5% 5% -67.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$31 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 81¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $46 +$2 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 +$3 +20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$16 -53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $183 −$182 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 +$22 +41%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$20 +110%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$9 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$5 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $86 −$85 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 5¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $44 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $45 30h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 78¢ $20 38h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 79¢ $20 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 40h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 42h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $5 45h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 46h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $13 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $14 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $137 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $18 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.05 · official $14.05 (match) · 45 history records