Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E4 0xe4ba…bf01 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$121 (+45%) realized +$72 · open +$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$129
sports 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +123.4% +102.1% 100% 100% +75.5%
≤30d 3 +123.4% +102.1% 100% 100% +75.5%
≤90d 4 +67.6% +51.6% 75% 75% +57.2%
all 4 +67.6% +51.6% 75% 75% +57.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.6% 75% +57.2%
10% +37.1% 50% +42.1%
15% +23.8% 50% +28.4%
20% +11.7% 50% +15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$10 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.06 per $1 lost it wins $8.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage44d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 55¢ $20 $73 +$53 (+263%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$27 +261%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $55 +$49 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$4 +19%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $85 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $24 40h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.45 · official $219.47 (match) · 13 history records