Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe4bd…dfa0 other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$13
politics 34% −$11
sports 8% +$11
tech 5% −$1
economics 5% −$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 106 -0.5% -10.0% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 135 +1.9% -7.8% 10% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 7% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 6% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×7.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 121
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)135 / 138
History coverage120d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $304 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $220 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $182 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $224 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $397 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $312 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $178 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $227 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $208 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $205 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $331 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $210 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $176 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $163 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $363 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $210 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $183 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $400 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $215 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $235 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $203 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $157 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $380 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $825 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $400 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $187 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $166 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $29 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 4d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $21 5d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $28 13d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $18 15d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 18d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $19 20d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $19 20d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 21d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 27d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 27d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 27d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 28d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 28d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $205 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.09 · official $89.09 (match) · 369 history records