Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe4bd…264e
crypto · 110 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$10 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses68 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)104 / 110
History coverage81d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 6 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 13¢ 80¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+533%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 85¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 13? Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 13? Apr 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 13 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 13 $19 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Kings vs. Warriors Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 06 $4 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 05 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 05 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 05 $3 $0 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 05 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 05 $3 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 05 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 05 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 02 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 87% −$6
sports 10% +$2
other 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 30d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 31d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 31d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 31d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 31d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $5 59d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 90¢ $5 59d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 88¢ $5 59d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 85¢ $5 59d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 13? BUY No 75¢ $5 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 13? BUY No 94¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 0% -4.1%
≤90d 104 +5.8% -4.3% 65% 45% -10.7%
all 104 +5.8% -4.3% 65% 45% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 45% -10.7%
10% -13.5% 29% -19.2%
15% -21.8% 24% -27.0%
20% -29.5% 20% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.02 · official $30.02 (match) · 279 history records