Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe4be…7275 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%27W / 33L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$3
other 30% +$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 4% +$1
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 8% -8.8%
all 60 +1.5% -8.2% 45% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 5% -9.0%
10% -17.0% 3% -17.7%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.67 per $1 lost it wins $3.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses27 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage455d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 67¢ 68¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $36 $0 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $37 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 10 $1 $0 +41%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 10 $3 $0 -7%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 04 $9 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $40 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $31 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 38¢ $31 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $29 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $6 22h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $36 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $14 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $22 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $36 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $36 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $16 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $34 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $32 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $2 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $34 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.75 · official $6.75 (match) · 212 history records