Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:23:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe4bf…3282 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%43W / 9L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$2
politics 16% $0
other 13% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 52 +0.2% -9.3% 83% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses43 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage500d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 05 $28 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Nov 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 05 $2 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Apr 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $29 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +3%
Will Quinn Hughes win the Hart Trophy? Mar 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Mar 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Brighton finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Mar 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $3750 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $64 1h
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 99¢ $28 63d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 92d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 93d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 122d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $20 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 148d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $31 150d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 100¢ $14 182d
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $16 211d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 211d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $18 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $37 242d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 271d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 272d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $31 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $11 301d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $46 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 332d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $45 333d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 362d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 99¢ $19 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 392d
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.28 · official $64.28 (match) · 110 history records