Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe4c0…eca1 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+4%) realized +$58 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$18
14 days+$4
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$95
sports 32% −$58
crypto 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +7.2% -3.0% 51% 44% -8.2%
≤30d 48 +7.9% -2.4% 54% 46% -7.5%
≤90d 48 +7.9% -2.4% 54% 46% -7.5%
all 48 +7.9% -2.4% 54% 46% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 46% -7.5%
10% -11.8% 38% -16.4%
15% -20.3% 33% -24.5%
20% -28.1% 25% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage14d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 68¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 +$96 +462%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $123 +$108 +88%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $20 +$2 +10%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $20 −$15 -75%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$23 +114%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 +$7 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +69%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 −$10 -65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$27 +53%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$28 +70%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $8 +$8 +93%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$12 +40%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$9 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 +$17 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$38 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$24 +47%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -24%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$27 +520%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $13 +$50 +378%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $20 +$3 +16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $10 +$2 +23%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$25 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 57m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $231 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 3h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 8h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 92¢ $24 9h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 88¢ $22 9h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 21¢ $5 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 76¢ $20 10h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 79¢ $20 10h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 78¢ $20 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $41 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $21 19h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $61 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $5 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $78 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.65 · official $107.65 (match) · 102 history records