Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4c0…4d22 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$1
politics 38% +$5
world 12% −$7
sports 4% −$6
tech 3% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.6% -10.9% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 10 -2.1% -11.4% 10% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 24 +1.2% -8.5% 29% 4% -9.6%
all 29 -4.8% -13.9% 34% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 3% -9.9%
10% -22.1% 3% -18.6%
15% -29.6% 3% -26.4%
20% -36.5% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage536d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $13 −$1 -7%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $19 −$1 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $38 −$4 -10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $85 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $113 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $75 −$2 -2%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 21 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 19 $67 +$4 +5%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $2 $0 -11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $248 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $248 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $273 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $248 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $89 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $191 +$1 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? May 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 24 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Jan 07 $8 −$7 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $37 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $18 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $19 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $31 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $28 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $28 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $24 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $11 15d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $38 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $42 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $42 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records