Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E4 0xe4c1…489f sports 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$545 (+11%) realized +$545 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%45W / 51L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days−$59
14 days+$461
30 days+$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$474
other 8% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +29.2% +16.9% 45% 45% -14.2%
≤30d 96 +18.3% +7.0% 47% 46% +1.8%
≤90d 96 +18.3% +7.0% 47% 46% +1.8%
all 96 +18.3% +7.0% 47% 46% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.0% 46% +1.8%
10% -3.2% 46% -8.0%
15% -12.6% 46% -16.9%
20% -21.1% 45% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$44 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$545
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses45 / 51
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions7
Markets (closed)96 / 104
History coverage19d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 48¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+6%)
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$57 +140%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $36 +$34 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$52 +509%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19 +$67 +344%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $48 +$70 +145%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $36 +$39 +109%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$49 +196%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$55 +109%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$4 +50%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -57%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$8 -80%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $199 −$195 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $79 −$20 -25%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $405 +$321 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 +$106 +105%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $120 −$117 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $102 +$120 +118%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $77 −$76 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $86 +$92 +106%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $298 +$188 +63%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $102 +$98 +97%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 07 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $131 +$125 +95%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 +$81 +158%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $18 +$30 +165%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $51 4h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $20 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 31¢ $15 14h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Portu BUY 54¢ $51 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $39 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 42¢ $51 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $36 2d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $62 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 2d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 16¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $86 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $31 2d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $118 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $48 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $40 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $36 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.75 · official $291.75 (match) · 178 history records