Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

E4 0xe4c3…ad61 other 6 markets active 5d ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$4 (-20%) realized −$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day2.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-16.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-8.1%	-16.9%	50%	33%	-30.1%
≤30d	6	-8.1%	-16.9%	50%	33%	-30.1%
≤90d	6	-8.1%	-16.9%	50%	33%	-30.1%
all	6	-8.1%	-16.9%	50%	33%	-30.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.9%	33%	-30.1%
10%	-24.8%	33%	-36.8%
15%	-32.1%	33%	-42.9%
20%	-38.7%	33%	-48.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)6 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day2.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 6 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-99%
Scotland leading at halftime?	Jun 14	$3	+$2	+96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$3	−$3	-99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$2	+$3	+145%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$3	−$3	-98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$5	$0	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	4d
Scotland leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	4d
Scotland leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	50¢	$3	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$3	4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	40¢	$2	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$3	6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY No	90¢	$5	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records