Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

E4 0xe4c6…1879 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$797 (+14%) realized +$1,028 · open −$231

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Drawdown39%max

Avg bet$159per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$116est.

Kalshi-fit46%portable

Net worth$1,323now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$348

30 days+$250

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-27.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	21	-23.2%	-30.5%	43%	43%	+0.1%
≤90d	22	-20.3%	-27.9%	45%	45%	+9.8%
all	22	-20.3%	-27.9%	45%	45%	+9.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.9%	45%	+9.8%
10%	-34.8%	41%	-0.7%
15%	-41.1%	41%	-10.3%
20%	-46.9%	18%	-19.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late -64% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$146 vs −$57 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage

Net worth$1,323

Realized+$1,028

Unrealized−$231

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Est. fees paid−$116

Open positions13

Markets (closed)22 / 35

History coverage50d

Avg bet$159

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown39%

Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 13 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	24¢	$218	$318	+$100 (+46%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	20¢	$100	$219	+$119 (+119%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	10¢	$200	$159	−$41 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	11¢	$218	$149	−$69 (-32%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	7¢	$100	$119	+$19 (+19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	6¢	$200	$117	−$83 (-42%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$77	$76	−$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$100	$71	−$29 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$70	$54	−$16 (-23%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026?	Yes	7¢	5¢	$50	$38	−$12 (-23%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$116	$3	−$113 (-97%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Japan	58¢	0¢	$80	$0	−$80 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Jun 19	$101	−$100	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 19	$25	+$4	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$12	+46%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$24	−$24	-98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$50	+$20	+40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$51	+$96	+187%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	+$55	+55%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 13	$409	+$102	+25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$102	+$192	+188%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$202	+$88	+44%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 11	$1,020	+$366	+36%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	May 30	$1,295	+$531	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Japan	58¢	$81	1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$26	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	9d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$51	9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$26	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$26	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$101	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$25	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$26	10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$205	11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	11d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$14	11d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$31	12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	12d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$31	12d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$50	12d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$72	15d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL T1	62¢	$50	15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$79	15d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Top Esports	31¢	$51	15d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	28¢	$51	15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	16d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	16d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$101	16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	20¢	$102	16d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	34¢	$102	17d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$119	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,323.18 · official $1,322.88 (match) · 77 history records