Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:33:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4c8…0020 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-2%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% −$7
other 26% −$13
sports 17% $0
politics 10% +$1
economics 8% $0
culture 6% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.7% -12.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 6 -2.2% -11.5% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -3.0% -12.2% 17% 0% -11.0%
all 51 -3.5% -12.7% 24% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -11.0%
10% -21.1% 0% -19.5%
15% -28.7% 0% -27.3%
20% -35.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage322d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $41 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $78 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $1 $0 -12%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $20 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $82 −$2 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $20 −$3 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jan 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $2 $0 -13%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $22 −$2 -7%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 14 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $0 $0 -9%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 10 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 10 $19 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $41 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $41 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $32 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $5 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $37 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $38 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $28 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 50¢ $20 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 49¢ $20 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $42 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $42 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 91¢ $15 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 91¢ $24 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $40 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records