Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:02:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E4 0xe4c9…8803 sports 218 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,701 (+21%) realized +$3,726 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%99W / 118L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$228est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$758
7 days+$869
14 days+$1,337
30 days+$1,584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$2,461
crypto 23% −$664
other 5% +$611
world 1% −$5
weather 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +45.8% +31.9% 28% 28% +50.1%
≤30d 164 +3.6% -6.2% 44% 43% +0.6%
≤90d 217 +8.4% -1.9% 46% 43% +3.8%
all 217 +8.4% -1.9% 46% 43% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 43% +3.8%
10% -11.3% 41% -6.1%
15% -19.9% 38% -15.2%
20% -27.7% 33% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$60 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$3,726
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses99 / 118
Est. fees paid−$228
Open positions1
Markets (closed)217 / 218
History coverage36d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $169 +$162 +96%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$663 +1290%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $64 +$222 +347%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $115 −$5 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $138 −$136 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$126 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $191 +$329 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $232 +$155 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 06 $69 −$68 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 06 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $13 +$9 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $27 +$14 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $94 +$78 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$9 +36%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Lorenzo Bocchi vs Daniil Sarksian Jun 06 $122 −$119 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Dimitris Azoidis Jun 06 $30 +$22 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $254 +$500 +197%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $119 +$134 +113%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 05 $433 +$92 +21%
ITF Focsani: Ana Ioana Varsa vs Anastasia Safta Jun 05 $31 −$20 -65%
ITF Luan: Yaojie Zeng vs Tsung Hao Huang Jun 05 $227 −$225 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $97 +$22 +23%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $14 −$14 -97%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $298 +$219 +73%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 04 $186 −$186 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $415 −$61 -15%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 04 $117 +$69 +59%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Balaji/Demoliner vs Helioevaara/Patten Jun 03 $48 −$48 -100%
Tyler: Fajing Sun vs Andre Ilagan Jun 03 $61 −$60 -98%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Jun 03 $67 +$44 +66%
ITF Luan: Ilya Maltsev vs Tianhui Zhang Jun 03 $156 −$153 -98%
ITF Luan: Hanyi Liu vs Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul Jun 03 $126 −$123 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $20 13h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $82 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 15h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 60¢ $63 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 60¢ $97 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 60¢ $31 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 60¢ $75 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 60¢ $29 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 60¢ $20 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 22h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 30¢ $169 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 21¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $64 42h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $110 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $110 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $115 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $138 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $56 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $191 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 85¢ $387 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 656 history records