Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E4 0xe4c9…e2dc crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$541 (-7%) realized −$652 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$301
7 days+$301
14 days+$301
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1,027
sports 13% +$393
other 3% +$19
world 3% +$83
weather 1% −$53
economics 0% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +48.4% +34.3% 33% 33% +35.4%
≤30d 12 -12.9% -21.2% 42% 25% -4.9%
≤90d 28 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 32% -17.5%
all 28 -18.0% -25.8% 43% 32% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 32% -17.5%
10% -32.9% 29% -25.4%
15% -39.4% 29% -32.6%
20% -45.3% 21% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$186 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$734
Realized−$652
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage37d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 88¢ $300 $394 +$94 (+31%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 46¢ 50¢ $223 $242 +$19 (+9%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $203 −$9 -4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$510 +250%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $506 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $472 +$39 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 20 $334 −$321 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $410 +$224 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 19 $209 −$200 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 19 $211 −$200 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 18 $517 −$517 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $660 +$886 +134%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $392 +$266 +68%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $203 +$83 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 13? May 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $24 +$76 +322%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 14 $372 −$367 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $323 +$177 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $616 −$605 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $247 +$54 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 12 $20 +$8 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 12 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 11 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 11 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 11 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 11 $114 −$110 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Under 55¢ $194 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 46¢ $226 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $303 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $202 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 96¢ $506 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 92¢ $69 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 92¢ $201 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 92¢ $201 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? BUY No 6¢ $32 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $333 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? BUY Down 33¢ $209 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? BUY No 18¢ $211 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 63¢ $410 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? BUY No 30¢ $516 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? BUY No 30¢ $0 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? BUY No 41¢ $22 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? BUY No 41¢ $639 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $392 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 82¢ $46 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 76¢ $93 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 81¢ $326 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 74¢ $203 35d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 35d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $734.31 · official $741.40 (match) · 83 history records