Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E4 0xe4cb…709c world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$4
politics 20% $0
sports 14% $0
other 10% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 43% 0% -8.7%
all 35 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage262d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $28 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $27 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $54 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $28 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $27 +$1 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 22 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $26 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $21 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 06 $22 $0 -1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 39m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $0 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $18 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $18 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 39¢ $29 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $12 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $18 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $27 23d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 23d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $22 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 36¢ $27 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $7 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $22 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $28 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 89¢ $5 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 89¢ $23 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $10 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $15 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records