Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E4 0xe4d2…ff97 weather 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+2%) realized +$56 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%70W / 80L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$76
14 days−$62
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 31% −$39
crypto 26% +$51
other 22% +$10
sports 20% +$14
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -35.4% -41.5% 43% 43% -37.6%
≤30d 137 -7.5% -16.3% 42% 39% -18.8%
≤90d 142 -4.5% -13.6% 44% 40% -12.9%
all 150 -3.5% -12.7% 47% 40% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 40% -8.7%
10% -21.1% 37% -17.4%
15% -28.7% 34% -25.4%
20% -35.7% 28% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses70 / 80
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)150 / 154
History coverage240d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 52¢ $18 $26 +$7 (+39%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+72%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$9 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +80%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$4 +65%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $13 +$7 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $13 +$5 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $23 +$7 +32%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $8 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$7 +100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $30 +$29 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$4 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$13 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$5 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$4 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 3? Jun 04 $7 +$27 +375%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 48m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $13 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $14 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 34h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 58¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $20 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.85 · official $44.32 · 484 history records