Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4d2…0037 world 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$184 (-6%) realized −$199 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%26W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$271
sports 30% +$35
other 15% +$54
politics 2% +$6
finance 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +24.6% +12.8% 100% 100% +12.4%
≤30d 2 +24.6% +12.8% 100% 100% +12.4%
≤90d 36 -5.6% -14.6% 47% 33% -21.2%
all 49 -5.0% -14.0% 53% 35% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 35% -16.2%
10% -22.3% 27% -24.3%
15% -29.8% 14% -31.6%
20% -36.7% 2% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses26 / 23
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage99d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $90 $100 +$10 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $33 +$8 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $26 +$6 +25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $205 +$50 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 19 $265 −$95 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 12 $95 −$17 -18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 10 $12 −$12 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 07 $5 −$1 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 04 $195 −$75 -39%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 04 $75 +$34 +45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $130 −$48 -37%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $115 −$54 -47%
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Apr 22 $50 +$22 +45%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 22 $58 −$31 -54%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 22 $70 +$7 +10%
Will Chelsea finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Apr 21 $70 +$9 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $75 −$23 -31%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $81 −$12 -15%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $70 −$16 -23%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 16 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 15 $72 −$18 -25%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 10 $50 −$32 -63%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 09 $25 −$17 -67%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $20 +$8 +40%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $40 +$27 +67%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 08 $20 +$7 +35%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 08 $20 +$10 +48%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 01 $15 +$1 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 26 $60 −$7 -12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Mar 26 $31 −$1 -2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $46 +$4 +8%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 26 $25 −$5 -21%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 26 $40 −$5 -11%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $63 −$31 -49%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 25 $40 $0 +1%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $40 +$2 +6%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Mar 23 $15 +$7 +48%
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Newcastle reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $175 +$56 +32%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $168 +$30 +18%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 17 $5 $0 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 16 $12 −$6 -52%
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $9 −$5 -53%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Mar 14 $2 −$1 -65%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 14 $4 $0 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Mar 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Military action against Iran ends on March 30, 2026? Mar 12 $4 −$1 -21%
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? Mar 12 $3 $0 +6%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $14 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $82 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $32 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 58¢ $74 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 30d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 47¢ $10 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 19¢ $35 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 41¢ $20 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 52¢ $10 35d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 25¢ $50 36d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 36d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 36d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $41 36d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 36d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 38d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 38d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 38d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $15 38d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 39d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 39d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $25 39d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $10 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.32 · official $370.32 (match) · 346 history records