Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:29:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4d4…93c7 world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$12
politics 19% $0
other 14% +$1
sports 10% −$11
economics 4% $0
finance 2% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 22% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 29 +69.2% +53.1% 55% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 68 +29.9% +17.5% 43% 4% -9.3%
all 74 +25.5% +13.6% 43% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.6% 4% -9.7%
10% +2.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -7.2% 3% -26.2%
20% -16.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 42
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage536d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 67¢ 68¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $147 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $109 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $59 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $139 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $115 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $113 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $53 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $32 +$2 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $42 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $12 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $11 +$8 +72%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $50 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $50 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $17 +$1 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $4 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -7%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $39 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $57 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $1 $0 +13%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $132 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $42 $0 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $42 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $94 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $6 $0 -8%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $28 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $9 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $3 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $7 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $4 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $55 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $59 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $22 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $54 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $59 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.29 · official $28.35 (match) · 327 history records